Policy Alert #244 | January 28, 2022

As more than 100,000 Russian troops amass near Ukraine’s borders, tensions between Ukraine and Russia are heightening. Vladimir Putin has defended the troop buildup, calling it a mere “military exercise.” However, in 2014 Russia invaded Crimea, raising fears in the West that Putin’s recent actions are in preparation for another invasion.

On January 21, 2022, US and Russian diplomats met in Geneva to avoid conflict in Ukraine. No major breakthroughs were made but the two sides agreed to continue dialogue. “Based on the conversations we’ve had… I think there are… a means to address some of the mutual concerns that we have about security,” US Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated. But he also warned, “If any Russian military forces move across Ukraine’s border… it will be met with swift, severe and a united response from the United States and our partners and allies.” 

Moscow issued Washington a set of demands, including guarantees that NATO will halt its eastward expansion, rule out membership for Ukraine and other former Soviet countries, and roll back its military deployments in Central and Eastern Europe. The US has delivered the written response Russia requested, in which Blinken confirmed that the US rejected Moscow’s central demand that NATO never admit Ukraine. A follow-up discussion with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov is expected in the coming days now that the document is under review in Moscow.

 

Russia

In meetings with the US, Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov reaffirmed that Russia has “no intention to invade Ukraine” and that fears of an invasion are unfounded. Addressing the State Duma on January 26, 2022, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov denounced the US and its European allies, whose actions are seen as “efforts to contain our country.” Lavrov criticized the US’ unilateral sanctions, the supplying of lethal weapons to Ukraine, and its efforts to draw Ukraine into NATO’s orbit.  “We reiterated our principled approach regarding the need to put an end to NATO’s endless eastward expansion,” Lavrov stated. “Many are asking why Russia has adopted such a principled position on the non-expansion of NATO. It’s because this bloc was created against the Soviet Union and continues to ‘work’ against the Russian Federation.” 

On January 27, 2022, after receiving the US’ response to Russia’s security guarantee proposals, Lavrov stated the responses offer grounds for serious talks “only on matters of secondary importance.” “There is no positive response to the main issue, which is our clear stand on the continued NATO enlargement towards the east and the deployment of strike weapons that can pose a threat to the territory of the Russian Federation,” Lavrov conveyed.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Russia is currently analyzing the US’ and NATO’s responses. After an inter-agency coordination of their conclusions, they will be submitted to President Vladimir Putin, who will decide further actions.

• The Russian news agency TAAS condemns Western countries’ anti-Russian media crusade: “The West’s claims of Russia’s alleged preparations for an invasion of Ukraine serve as an information cover-up in order to plot its own provocations.” 

 

China

In a press conference on January 24, Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Zhao Lijian reaffirmed China’s position on the Ukraine issue: “We embrace a vision of… sustainable global security… efforts should be made to resolve differences through dialogue and consultation.” Both China and Russia have refuted a Bloomberg report which claimed that Chinese President Xi Jinping had allegedly asked Russian President Vladimir Putin not to invade Ukraine during the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympic Games. Addressing the report, Lijian stated, “It seeks not only to smear and drive a wedge in China-Russia relations, but also to deliberately disrupt and undermine the Beijing Winter Olympics.”

• In an op-ed for the nationalist Global Times, editor Chen Qingqing rebukes misinformation about the Ukraine crisis widely circulating among some Western media that could affect China-Russia mutual trust: “This reflects the ‘ill intention’ of the Western forces trying to instigate divergences between Beijing and Moscow.” 
• In an op-ed for the state-directed China Daily, editor Zhao Huirong frames the Ukraine issue as part of a larger NATO-Russia struggle: “The strategies of the United States and the EU seem aimed at using Ukraine to contain Russia and rally other Eurasian countries support for the West.” 
• The independent South China Morning Post reveals that Moscow constantly updates Beijing on progress in security talks between the US and Russia, even though China is not related to the talks.

 

India

Delhi is yet to issue an official statement on the matter, choosing to closely monitor the developments as of now. 

• In an op-ed for the liberal Indian Express, editor Shubhajit Roy claims that closer Russia-China ties makes Delhi walk the ‘tightrope’ on Ukraine considering the India-China border conflict: “Almost 60 percent of India’s military supplies are Russian-manufactured …India won’t be inclined to rush in with any condemnatory statement against Russia.”
• In an op-ed for the business-focused The Economic Times, editor Pranab Dhal Samanta believes India must prepare for the impact of possible military conflict in Ukraine: “A military conflict in Ukraine is undoubtedly strategically undesirable for India. What’s worse is that New Delhi can hardly do much to influence the course of events.”

 

Japan 

On January 22, 2022, Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio held a Japan-U.S. Summit Video Teleconference Meeting with US President Biden. According to a press release by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan, “The leaders committed to work closely together to deter Russian aggression against Ukraine. Prime Minister Kishida pledged to continue close coordination with the United States… on taking strong action in response to any attack.” The Russian Foreign Ministry expressed “puzzlement” at the “inadmissibility and senselessness” of Japan’s warning that it was poised to take “strong actions” in light of Russia’s recent actions in Ukraine. 

In an article for the US foreign policy magazine Responsible Statecraft, former Japanese ambassador Kazuhiko Togo, whose career was devoted to Russia, is critical of Japan’s policy. Togo judges that Tokyo should firmly present its view regarding the negative consequences of NATO’s 30 years of eastward expansion and the complexity of the Ukraine situation from a Russian perspective: “I believe we need to analyze Russia from a realist point of view. Therefore, the best balancing power structure in Europe is to accept Ukraine as a solid buffer zone between Russia and NATO.”