Policy Alert #204 | February 28, 2020

On February 24-25th, US President Donald Trump made his first visit to India, where he was welcomed by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and an estimated 100,000 attendees at a “Namaste Trump” rally held in his home province of Gujarat. While the two-day visit did not conclude with an agreement to end an ongoing trade tiff that began in 2018, the leaders announced India’s plans to buy US military equipment, including Apache and MH-60 Romeo helicopters, in a deal valued at $3 billion. While President Trump and Prime Minister Modi exchanged compliments, they remained silent on a wave of violence that broke out in Delhi as Hindu nationalists attacked a group of Muslim activists who were protesting the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) that was passed in December. Indian National Security Advisor Ajit Doval surveyed the situation in Delhi in the late evening of the 25th, but Prime Minister Modi didn’t acknowledge the violence until after Trump’s departure, and did so through a pair of tweets. 

 

INDIA

In his speech concluding the welcome rally for President Trump, Prime Minister Modi emphasized two topics on which the US and India agree–combatting terrorism and maintaining stability in the Indo-Pacific: “I am clear that India and America are natural partners. We can make an effective contribution not only in the Indo-pacific region but in the peace, progress and security of the whole world. The commitment of America and the leadership of President Trump to defeat terrorism have served humanity. And that’s why I believe that a unique leader like President Trump and the unique friendship of India, coming to India at the beginning of this decade is a huge opportunity.”

• The liberal Indian Express emphasized the reciprocity between Modi and Trump in exciting their domestic audiences: “Underlying the bonhomie is the recognition that they can help each other’s political fortunes. Trump is facing re-election in November and would be happy to see his warmth towards Modi and India translate into valuable support from the Indian American community. Trump, too, is lending some political cover for Modi, who is facing considerable international criticism for his government’s recent moves on Kashmir and the amendment of citizenship laws. That Trump avoided any direct criticism of Modi on these issues will be noted around the world.”
• The liberal Hindustan Times was optimistic that Trump’s performance in India was indicative of his willingness to abide by the foreign policy recommendations of the US Department of State and Department of Defense with regards to the Indo-Pacific region more broadly: “What India can now assume is that it can work with the US on the Indo-Pacific strategy without worry of presidential interference. Mr Trump has absorbed and accepted that on terrorism and great power rivalry, India is on the right side of the ledger — even if its tariffs are too high.”
• The pro-government Daily Pioneer also analyzed the mutual support between the leaders, and argued that Trump’s visit was a win for Modi’s government: “For Modi, the ceremonial genuflection is intended for the same reason, to prove that his leadership has the endorsement of none other than the US President and that for all the opposition by both political parties and civil society at home, he has the US-sanctioned trust and a broader silence on Kashmir, no matter the pyrrhic bursts of angst.”
• The center-right Times of India, on the other hand, kept a critical eye on the leaders’ inability to resolve substantive problems between them: “[W]here the India-US synergy is failing to deliver is on trade. That even a mini-trade deal could not be worked out during Trump’s visit shows how far apart the two sides are on this issue.”
• In an op-ed for the Indian Express, former ambassador and director general of the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses offered an optimistic review of Trump’s behavior during the trip: “That he did not utter a single word in Motera about recent political developments in India reflects Trump’s political maturity and the importance attached to a deeper engagement with India.”

 

CHINA

• The state-directed China Daily published two editorials that attempted to discredit Trump’s visit. The first called on India to maintain its non-alignment policy: “[S]o far New Delhi has maintained strategic ambiguity which, in the final analysis, speaks of the South Asian giant’s intention to strike a strategic balance with all major players in the region, including the US, China and Russia. For New Delhi, such a strategic balance is a wise choice which would give it both strategic and diplomatic flexibility.” The second questioned India’s willingness to serve as a stage for Trump’s domestic political interests: “[W]hy would New Delhi forsake its time-honored, broadly respected non-aligned policy to assume the degrading role of being someone else’s pawn?”
• Mu Lu, a contributor to the nationalist Global Times, urged the Chinese government to be weary of the seemingly superficial trip: “Although Trump is a real estate tycoon, he doesn’t care about petty gains but aims at reshaping global relations, which is part of the US Indo-Pacific Strategy. Such a situation is undoubtedly detrimental to China, which needs stable surroundings for its peaceful development.”
• The China Daily also featured an op-ed by Swaran Singh, professor at Jawaharlal Nehru University and adjunct senior fellow at the Charhar Institute, that argued the “hard economics” between India and the US will continue to complicate their bilateral relationship despite the flashy optics of Modi and Trump’s meeting.

RPI acknowledges support from the MacArthur Foundation and the Carnegie Corporation of New York for its activities.