Policy Alert #199 | November 21, 2019

November 13-14, 2019, heads of state from Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa gathered in Brasilia for the Eleventh BRICS Summit and the close of the bloc’s first ten years of formal, high-level meetings. Originally coined as potential investment markets by Goldman Sachs analyst Jim O’Neil in 2001 (with South Africa added in 2003), lackluster economic growth in Brazil, Russia, and South Africa, as well as tense bilateral relations between member states has raised questions about the bloc’s relevance. India recently opted out of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership due to concerns about opening its market to Chinese goods, and Indian Defence Minister Rajnath Singh visited territory claimed by both China and India during the summit. As the summit opened, there was speculation about how much the bloc could agree on economic matters, given that Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, who served as chair for this year’s summit, has been an outspoken critic of multilateralism as well as Brazil’s economic relationship with China. China, India, and Russia are at odds with Brazil regarding the ongoing political unrest in Venezuela. The summit successfully concluded with the signing of the Brasilia Declaration, which emphasized the members’ commitment to multilateralism, but also to “the principle of sovereignty.” 

 

CHINA
In his speech at the BRICS Summit, Chinese President Xi Jinping called upon the member states to “foster a security environment of peace and stability,” “pursue greater development prospects through openness and innovation,” and “promote mutual learning through people-to-people exchanges.” President Xi also reiterated his country’s commitment “to an independent foreign policy of peace and to the path of peaceful development” in accordance with China’s Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence. To a question from the press regarding the utility of BRICS, Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Geng Shuang responded: “This summit adds stability to the international landscape at a critical juncture, points the way forward for the international system undergoing profound transformation, injects positive energy into the concerned international community and provides new impetus to deepening practical BRICS cooperation.” Regarding reports that Indian Minister of Defence Rajnath Singh visited an area claimed by both India and China during the BRICS Summit, Spokesperson Geng emphasized his country’s position on the issue: “The Chinese government never ever recognizes the so-called ‘Arunachal Pradesh’. We firmly oppose Indian leaders’ and senior officials’ activities there. We urge the Indian side to respect China’s interests and concerns, stop taking any moves that may complicate the boundary issue, and maintain peace and tranquility in the border region with concrete actions.” 

• State-run Xinhua’s coverage of the summit highlighted glowing reviews from various experts from BRICS member countries as well as observer states.  
• The state-supported China Daily focused on the bloc’s role in the global economy: “The global economic landscape is gloomy under the threat of a protectionist upsurge. As economic globalization faces headwinds, the BRICS economies should identify the difficulties and pain points that hinder trade and investment among them and come up with practical solutions.”
• The nationalist Global Times pushed back against Western media coverage that dismissed the BRICS framework given the slowing economic growth of the member states: “The long-term factors driving BRICS’ economic growth have remained unchanged, and the dynamic mechanisms of BRICS countries as emerging markets have remained unchanged. Their influence in regions and the world has not diminished. They are still on the frontline of world development and changes.”
• In an op-ed for the China Daily, Shi Xiaohu, dean of the School of International Studies at the Beijing International Studies University, called for the BRICS members to coordinate their efforts in international organizations’ frameworks, such as the United Nations and G20: “By working under the UN framework, BRICS countries can enjoy a bigger say in key international issues, promote a new type of international relations, and build a community with a shared future for mankind. […] BRICS countries should protect the interests of developing countries by increasing their say in global governance.”

 

INDIA
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi urged the member states to be steadfast in its commitments as the BRICS platform enters it second decade: “Now we have to consider the direction of BRICS, and mutual cooperation to be more effective in the next ten years. Despite success in many areas, there is considerable scope to increase efforts in some areas. We must make BRICS mechanisms and processes more efficient and outcome-driven to meet the challenges of the global economy.” One issue of particular concern for Modi is the small size of intra-BRICS trade, currently valued at just fifteen percent of global trade despite the countries’ forty-percent share of the global population, which he proposed remedying by establishing a $500 billion trade target. Prime Minister Modi also emphasized the issue of terrorism, which is a perennially thorny issue in China-India relations given China’s closeness of Pakistan. On the heels of the BRICS Summit, Indian Minister of Defense Rajnath Singh visited the state of Arunachal Pradesh on the India-China border which China claims as part of Tibet. In a press release following a side-line meeting between Prime Minister Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping, the Indian Ministry of External Affairs reported that the two leaders “noted that the Special Representatives will have another meeting on matters relating to the Boundry [sic] Question and reiterated the importance of maintaining peace and security in the border areas.” 

• In an editorial, the left-leaning Hindu echoed Modi’s call for an increase in intra-BRICS trade: “Going forward, it is greater connectivity and more trade that will allow the BRICS countries to claim their rightful space, and provide the leadership and energy that the global economic order needs urgently.”
• The liberal Indian Express was cynical in its review of the summit, and pointed to power imbalances and rivalries between the members–especially China and India–in other areas: “India’s gains from the BRICS are not obvious. Nor is it evident if India’s interests are in alignment with the declared policies of the BRICS. Consider, for example, the thundering BRICS declaration on defending multilateralism. Many of India’s problems in the multilateral domain are rooted in Beijing’s opposition — it stalled efforts to join the UNSC as a permanent member and the Nuclear Suppliers Group. On trade, while it is easy to demonise President Trump’s protectionist policies, Delhi’s biggest trade deficit is with China. India has cited China’s economic threat for not joining the Asian trading bloc — RCEP [Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership]. On countering terrorism, which is a major foreign policy priority for India, China views the problem through Pakistani eyes.”
• Rajiv Bhatia, former High Commissioner to South Africa and Distinguished fellow at Gateway House, wrote in an op-ed for The Hindu urging the BRICS members to act on their commitment to “project the perspectives of developing economies,” while being careful to avoid getting ahead of themselves with their New Development Bank (NDB): “It needs to start extending loans for projects in non-BRICS countries to create a solid constituency of supporters. Also, is such a plethora of meetings really essential? Do the results justify the expenditure? India’s representatives should ask, do they help the poor and vulnerable sections of the BRICS community? Finally, BRICS should ponder if in the short term it needs to focus on fulfilling existing commitments instead of taking on new ones.”

 

RUSSIA
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s speech at the summit emphasized the bloc’s political role as a representative for developing economies in the international community: “Together we speak in favour of strict compliance with the norms of international law and the central role of the United Nations in international affairs. Our countries promote the influence of developing countries in the global management system, as well the establishment of a more just global order.” At a press conference following the signing of the 2020 BRICS Declaration, President Putin responded to a question about the relevance of the BRICS platform: “As for increasing its influence, we are not pushing it or trying to turn the group into a closed alliance. However, the role of BRICS will definitely increase in the context of global changes. Colleagues, I invite you to take a look at the economy. Just look at the figures. This year BRICS has surpassed the G7 in terms of GDP PPP [gross domestic product parity purchasing power] by 12 percent, I believe. And next year we will have $50 trillion more than the G7 countries. Is there anyone who does not see this? It is a very real and substantial factor of international affairs, and it will continue to grow.” Russia will host the next BRICS Summit in St. Petersburg, which is planned for the summer of 2020, and Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov announced Russia’s intention to promote space cooperation among other topics.

• In an op-ed for government-funded RT, Fyodor Lukyanov, editor-in-chief of Russia in Global Affairs and chairman of the Presidentium of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, asserted that the BRICS bloc remains important despite lackluster growth given that “[t]he vast majority of countries are getting increasingly confused” about US intentions and policies in trade: “[I]t makes perfect sense, particularly today. The global system is undergoing a deep transformation. […] What the underlying principles for a new architecture will be remains to be seen. That is why an association of countries that will be shaping the world order under any scenario is worth maintaining. At least, until we can finally discern the contours of the new order.”
• Leonid Bershidsky, Bloomberg Opinion’s Europe columnist and founding editor of Russian business daily Vedomosti and opinion website Slon, penned an op-ed for the independent, Dutch-based Moscow Times which took stock of BRICS accomplishments in the past decade. While noting that Goldman Sachs analyst Jim O’Neill’s economic predictions for the bloc in 2001 and 2003 have not come to fruition, Bershidsky argues that BRICS nevertheless developed as an important political platform: “These nations — as well as other populous and often economically dynamic countries in Africa and Asia — are still, like in 2001, outsiders in the global financial system. That is still run by the U.S. and Europe, to a greater degree than their shrinking share of global output would appear to warrant. In that sense, O’Neill’s old idea is still highly relevant. If he failed to predict exactly which countries would outperform on growth, he had the right idea about developing nations’ quest for a bigger role in global decision-making.”

RPI acknowledges support from the MacArthur Foundation and the Carnegie Corporation of New York for its activities.