Policy Alert #217 | November 12, 2020

After four days of vote counting, news organizations on Nov 7 declared Democratic candidates Joe Biden and Kamala Harris as the winners of the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election. Although incumbent President Donald Trump refused to concede to Biden and vowed to legally challenge the result of the election, leaders around the world, including French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, have congratulated Biden and Harris on their victory.

Given Biden’s track record as Vice President during the Obama administration, world leaders await drastically different U.S. policies compared to President Trump. What are the expectations of the Rising Powers on the upcoming leadership of Biden and Harris? In this Policy Alert, we examine the Rising Powers’ reactions to the results of the 2020 U.S. Election.

China

Consistent with its pre-election attitude, China has been cautious with official comments in the aftermath of the U.S. election. President Xi Jinping has yet to congratulate Biden on his victory. On Nov 5, Vice Foreign Minister Le Yucheng responded to a U.S. election question at a press conference: “China’s attitude toward the bilateral relations is clear and consistent. Although there are differences between the two countries, they also have extensive common interests and room for cooperation. We hope that the next U.S. government will meet China halfway; uphold the principles of non-conflict, non-confrontation, mutual respect and win-win cooperation; focus on collaboration; manage differences; and push forward bilateral ties along the right track.”

During a regular press conference on Nov 9, Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Wang Wenbin answered a question on Biden’s victory: “ [W]e noticed that Mr. Biden has declared election victory. We understand the presidential election result will be determined following the U.S. laws and procedures. We always believe China and the United States should strengthen communication and dialogue, manage differences on the basis of mutual respect, expand cooperation based on mutual benefit, and promote the sound and stable development of China-U.S. relations.”

• An editorial from South China Morning Post, an independent newspaper based in Hong Kong, predicts a potentially bitter but more pragmatic and predictable relationship between the U.S. and China under Biden: “There is good reason for reticence; anti-Chinese sentiment has bipartisan support among American lawmakers and there is a possibility that the new president could take an even tougher stance. As a seasoned politician, though, Biden knows the importance of diplomacy and cooperation and on that score, there is at least the likelihood that ties between the two most important economies will return to a more predictable and even-keeled course.”
• An editorial from the state-owned nationalist tabloid Global Times warns that Biden will remain tough on China as U.S. strategy toward China has shifted fundamentally under Trump: “Most analysts believe that the high-intensity conflicts launched by the Trump administration, including the trade war, have reset the general environment of China-US relations and changed the US elites’ thinking toward China… China should not harbor any illusions that Biden’s election will ease or bring a reversal to China-US relations, nor should it weaken its belief in improving bilateral ties. US competition with China and its guard against China will only intensify.”
• In an op-ed for Global Times, Su Xiaohui, the deputy director of the Department for International and Strategic Studies at the China Institute of International Studies, foresees that there will not be any military conflict between the U.S. and China under Biden, but the U.S. will maintain its military posture in the region: “Biden has said that Russia is the biggest threat to US security, and characterized China as a competitor rather than an adversary. It is safe to say that the US has no will to have a war with China… Regardless of who is selected as the new defense secretary, he or she will emphasize China’s challenge and US’ absolute supremacy in regions such as the Asia-Pacific. Hegemony lies behind US’ habitual military actions.”
• In an op-ed for Global Times, Dong Yifan, a research fellow with the Institute of European Studies, China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations, suggests that Biden will try to repair transatlantic relations, but Europe has become more independent under Trump: “The EU will not try too hard to follow Washington after Biden takes office, because European countries still have their own control over foreign relations. In recent years, the EU has been stressing the importance of strategic autonomy and European sovereignty. It does not want to be easily manipulated by major powers.”

India

Indian leaders responded quickly to Biden’s victory. In a Twitter post, Prime Minister Narendra Modi congratulated Biden soon after the election was called on Nov 7: “Congratulations @JoeBiden on your spectacular victory! As the VP, your contribution to strengthening Indo-US relations was critical and invaluable. I look forward to working closely together once again to take India-US relations to greater heights.” On a separate post, Modi praised Harris: “Heartiest congratulations @KamalaHarris! Your success is pathbreaking, and a matter of immense pride not just for your chittis, but also for all Indian-Americans. I am confident that the vibrant India-US ties will get even stronger with your support and leadership.”

Besides Prime Minister Modi, other Indian political leaders also lauded the Biden-Harris victory. Ruling BJP General Secretary Ram Madhav praised the two country’s strong bipartisan bilateral relationship based on principles of democracy, mutual benefits, and global peace, whereas Sonia Gandhi, President of the opposition Congress Party, praised that the victory would work to heal the division among the people and called Harris “a beloved daughter of India.”

• An editorial from the liberal The Indian Express points out that the Biden’s moderate approach will define U.S. domestic and foreign policy: “Biden has never been a crusader for political causes. His defining qualities were ideological flexibility and the capacity to adapt to the changing political circumstances… By simply not being Trump, Biden begins with a huge political advantage at home and abroad. How he turns that opportunity into effective policy outcomes remains to be seen.”
• An editorial from the pro-government The Pioneer suggests that a new Biden administration is unlikely to be different for India because U.S. policies are guided by national interest and strategic concerns: “[T]he Biden-Harris team is as wary of China and committed to supporting India as a bulwark State… India could benefit with Biden planning to resume US’s position at most global alliances and UN bodies that Trump had walked out of while pursuing his brand of protectionism and nationalism.”
• In the business-oriented Economic Times, journalist and commentator Seema Sirohi suggests that India will have to work harder to be happy with the Biden administration, with the state of Indian democracy likely to come under more scrutiny, and some possible re-adjustments on Pakistan and China: “Bottomline: Both Pakistan and China have room to play, plant seeds and exploit the Dems’ tendency to debate.“
• In an op-ed for The Indian Express, C. Raja Mohan, the director of Institute of South Asian Studies at National University of Singapore, argues that the Indian debate on U.S.-Indian relations is narrowly focused on the elections, and that India should pay more attention to the inner-workings of policy making in Washington: “Russia and China have invested quite heavily in academic and policy research on the US… India went the other way. Just as relations with the US began to take off, India shut down a premier institute – the American Studies Research Centre at Osmania University, Hyderabad.”

Japan

In a Twitter post, Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga congratulated Biden and Harris on Nov 7: “Warm congratulations to @JoeBiden and @KamalaHarris. I look forward to working with you to further strengthen the Japan-US Alliance and ensure peace, freedom, and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific region and beyond.” On the same day, Japanese Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi also said on Twitter: “Congratulations to @JoeBiden and @KamalaHarris. I look forward to working closely with the new administration to further promote Japan-US relations and to overcome challenges the world faces.”

In addition to sending blessings, Prime Minister Suga held phone talks on Nov 12 with Biden regarding the U.S. commitments to the security alliance with Japan. Speaking to reporters after the call, Suga said the Biden administration made clear that Article 5 of the U.S.-Japan Treaty of Mutual Cooperation would apply to the Senkaku Islands, but the readout from Biden’s transition team confirmed the President-elect’s commitment to the U.S.-Japan security alliance without mentioning the islands by name.

• An editorial from the conservative Yomiuri Shimbun hopes for a stable relationship between the two countries under Biden while emphasizing the importance of the security alliance: “Biden has indicated that he intended to focus on the alliance, and senior officials from the administration of former President Barack Obama are expected to take up pivotal diplomatic posts. A high-ranking Japanese Foreign Ministry official confided that he felt “much more at ease” than four years ago.”
• An editorial from the progressive Asahi Shimbun expects that Biden is facing the challenge of restoring reconciliation domestically and rebuilding the global order internationally: “Biden should understand that he has a historic duty to correct the course of the world’s leading power… The world will watch closely whether his policy actions will lead to the United States’ return to multilateral cooperation, as the international community is hoping for, and end the ‘America First’ agenda of the Trump administration.”
• In an op-ed for the business-focused Nikkei Asia Report, Ryan Hass, the Chair of the Foreign Policy program at the Brookings Institution, argues that while the rise of China is the greatest challenge to U.S. foreign policy in Asia, Biden’s policy toward China will not be identical to the Obama administration since the geopolitics in the region has changed in the last four years: “Biden’s views on China are responsive to the increasingly competitive nature of the U.S.-China relationship… Biden has declared that developments in Xinjiang represent acts of genocide. He has spoken with moral clarity on Hong Kong. He has highlighted the importance of Taiwan. And he has vowed to resume the past practice of presidential meetings with the Dalai Lama… Biden’s top advisers generally are skeptical of China’s ambitions.”

Russia

Similar to China’s caution, Russia has been reluctant to make official comments on the Biden-Harris victory while citing the ongoing legal process. On Nov 9, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told reporters: “Obviously, you can see that certain legal procedures are coming there, which were announced by the incumbent president – therefore this situation is different, so we consider it correct to wait for the official announcement.”

In contrast, Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny, who is currently recovering from poisoning in Germany, applauded Biden and Harris on their victory: “Congratulations to @JoeBiden and @KamalaHarris on the victory and to the Americans on defining the new leadership in a free and fair election. This is a privilege which is not available to all countries. Looking forward to the new level of cooperation between Russia and the US.”

• In an interview with the official state-owned news outlet TASS, Former President of the USSR Mikhail Gorbachev expressed his wishes on the recovery of mutual trust between the U.S. and Russia: “I hope that Joe Biden will strive to normalize relations and recover trust between our countries. I am confident that this is in the interest of both America and Russia… This is the place of the US in global politics: relations with America are important to everyone, to every country. I am confident that Russia needs good relations with the US as well, but not at any cost, of course.”
• In an interview with TASS, Russian Communist Party leader Gennady Zyuganov warned about Biden’s potential hostility toward Russia: “Speaking about Biden, he is a globalist and Russia’s main enemy. They set out a task to destroy and suffocate Russia… They are continuing the old barbaric policy in Ukraine still, they are viciously stifling [them] in brotherly Belarus. This is the deep state, it is propped by the military. Even though Trump changed them a few times, but their anti-Russian policy did not change.”
• In an op-ed for the government-funded RT, Glenn Diesen, an Associate Professor at the University of South-Eastern Norway, identifies the alleged meddling of U.S. elections by Russia as conspiracy theories driven by domestic U.S. politics: “Former US Ambassador to Russia and leading Russiagate conspiracy theorist Michael McFaul sees yet another conspiracy in Putin’s failure to congratulate Biden, and suggests that Americans doubting the legitimacy of Biden are playing into the hands of the Russians… Moscow’s patience in terms of holding off congratulations should be interpreted as an effort to respect the democratic institutions of America, and its own normal protocols. There is no history of the Kremlin congratulating a US election winner before their opponent concedes.”