Policy Alert #213 | September 9, 2020

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, the country’s longest-serving prime minister, announced that he would resign from the position due to his worsening condition of ulcerative colitis – the same disease Abe has been battling for decades and ended his first stint as PM in 2007. Abe’s abrupt resignation comes at a time when Japan faces various uncertainties at home and abroad.

Domestically, Japan is challenged by an ongoing threat of COVID, the economic downturn caused by COVID, and the task of preparing for the upcoming Tokyo Olympic games. Internationally, there is a rising level of Chinese assertiveness in the region, intensifying geopolitical and economic competitions between the U.S. and China, and the uncertainty of future U.S. policy amid the upcoming Presidential election.

How do the Rising Powers perceive Abe’s political legacy and the absence of his leadership in the future? In this RPI Policy Alert, we survey the Rising Powers’ reactions to Abe’s sudden resignation.

Japan

The most pressing challenge for Japan’s ruling LDP is to elect Abe’s successor. Among the competition, Abe’s right-hand man Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga is seen to be the likely winner as he wins backing from powerful factions within the party. At news conferences and media interviews, Suga pledges to continue the economic reforms of “Abenomics” while promising to overhaul the health ministry.

• The conservative Yomiuri Shimbun praises Abe’s rehabilitation of unstable politics as the greatest achievement of his administration. Abe has promoted a larger role for Japan in regional security while improving relations with the international community. The editorial criticized Abe’s pandemic response and highlight the need of a smooth power transition amid the COVID crisis:
  • “At a time when Japan faces a national crisis over an infectious disease, political stability must not be undermined. The ruling Liberal Democratic Party is required to select a new leader as soon as possible to avoid confusion.”
• The progressive Asahi Shimbun argues that Abe’s diplomacy lacks substance, while it emphasizes his failure in producing substantive outcome with the U.S., Russia, the two Koreas, but makes no specific comment on diplomatic relations with China:
  • “The administration of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, which is the longest running in the history of Japan’s constitutionalism, created a “poster boy” for the country’s diplomacy. But that did not produce matching results. Despite the plethora of slogans set forth by the administration, substance took a backseat to glib staging of personal ties between national leaders.”
• In an op-ed for Nikkei Asian Review, a center-right business newspaper, former Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull commends Abe’s shared effort with him to revive the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) after the U.S. decided to pull out under the Trump administration. Turnbull gave kudos for Abe’s championing of the Quad in the face of regional security challenges posed by China and North Korea:
  • “When President Donald Trump pulled out of the deal, almost everyone, including Shinzo, thought that the deal was dead. I argued that the remaining eleven nations should proceed without the Americans. My political opponents said I was pursuing a futile vanity project. […] Despite all that by January 2017, meeting in Sydney, we had agreed to keep the deal alive. And Shinzo then set to work, as I did, to persuade the remaining TPP countries to stick with the deal.”

China

China’s Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Zhao Lijian made the following remarks on Abe’s resignation during the Ministry’s regular press conference:

“In recent years, China-Japan relations got back to the right track and achieved new progress. Leaders of the two sides reached important consensus on building a bilateral relationship in keeping with the new era. We speak positively of Prime Minister Abe’s important efforts in this process and wish him a speedy recovery.

We stand ready to work together with the Japanese side to stay committed to the principles and spirit established in the four political documents and deepen anti-epidemic and socioeconomic cooperation to ensure the sustained improvement and development of China-Japan relations.”

• An editorial from state sponsored China Daily warns about Japan potentially entering a period of “deep uncertainty.” It focuses on the economic consequences of Abe’s departure and the uncertainty of the fate of Abenomics:
  • “The prospects of Abe’s departure had prompted broad concerns over his signature Abenomics, which includes monetary easing from the Bank of Japan, fiscal stimulus through government spending, and structural reforms to jolt the economy out of the stagnation that has gripped Japan for more than two decades.”
• In an op-ed for the Global Times, a nationalist tabloid under the People’s Daily, Wang Wen, a professor and executive dean of Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies at Renmin University of China argues that China’s view of Abe has shifted dramatically from a “a political clown who fell from power like a meteor” to a “a respectable Japanese politician.” Wang suggests that the fundamental cause behind such transformation is the change in relative power between China and Japan under the Abe administration. Wang also argues that the shift in power “does not mean China should look down on Japan” and that China can still “draw lessons from this neighbor.”
  • “One of Abe’s most popular stories in China happened when he was asked why he appears so jolly when he fawns over US President Donald Trump. He said that a wise man mends his ways and he does not mind losing face for the sake of the country and its people. This pragmatic answer has won favor in China.”
• A commentary article from the independent Hong Kong based South China Morning Post opines that Sino-Japanese relationship would remain stable if Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga becomes Abe’s successor. Citing comments from Hu Lingyuan, director of Fudan University’s Centre for Japanese Studies in Shanghai, the article argues that Suga has been Abe’s cabinet secretary for over seven years, which makes him a transitional figure who can inherit Abe’s policies
  • “Abe has made significant contributions to the improvement in China and Japan relations. As someone picked by Abe to be the cabinet secretary, the most important cabinet role, his fundamental ideologies and attitude towards China should be similar.”

India

In response to Abe’s resignation, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi tweeted:

“Pained to hear about your ill health, my dear friend @AbeShinzo. In recent years, with your wise leadership and personal commitment, the India-Japan partnership has become deeper and stronger than ever before. I wish and pray for your speedy recovery.”

• A commentary article from the left-leaning Hindu praises Abe’s promotion of Indo-Pacific cooperation, and his effort to establish the TPP. The Hindu also highlights Abe’s push for more cooperation among the Quad and a larger security role for Japan in Indo-Pacific. It credits Abe for better relations with Russia while putting a heavy emphasis on improving relations with China:
  • “He also pitched for Japan to become “a guardian of the global commons” particularly in an increasingly contested maritime domain, and to work closely with “like-minded democracies”, such as the United States, India, Australia and South Korea.”
• An op-ed in the liberal Indian Express by Swati Rao, professor at Aligarh Muslim University, gives mixed reviews, commending the improving economic cooperation between India and Japan, but emphasizing the failure of Abenomics to improve the Japanese economy:
  • “A controversial leader, Abe strove to change Japan’s defence strategy and tried to revise its pacifist constitution and revive Japan’s economy with Abenomics (the nomenclatural inspiration for our Modinomics). He delivered consequential agreements, such as multilateral trade agreements in the Pacific (the CPTPP) and the Atlantic (the Japan-EU Economic Partnership Agreement), as well as the Australia-Japan-US Trilateral Infrastructure Partnership.”
• In an op-ed for the liberal-leaning Mumbai think tank Gateway House, former Indian Ambassador to Germany Gurjit Singh argues that India and Japan solidified their partnership under the Abe administration. Abe’s resignation has casted uncertainty not only in Japan’s future role in the Quad, but also in Japan’s future economic cooperation with India:
  • “The biggest casualty of the focus to find a replacement for Abe, could be the cooperation of the Quad and the Indo Pacific since these engagements are still experimental and ongoing. It is unclear how much of Quad related policy is embedded in the Japanese system. A new Prime Minister will be more diffident. This could be a loss. If the new dispensation tries a charm offensive with China, then the outright support for India may also diminish.”

Russia

President Vladimir Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov told news agencies that “Shinzo Abe really made an invaluable contribution to the development of bilateral Russian-Japanese relations” and Russia hopes Abe’s successor “will be equally committed to further developing Russian-Japanese relations.”

• In an op-ed for the government-funded Russian news network RT, Stephen R. Nagy, senior associate professor at International Christian University and a visiting fellow with the Japan Institute for International Affairs, emphasizes Abe’s successful maneuvers in dealing with leaders of the U.S. and China, but highlights his failure in Japan’s relation with South Korea. Nagy also argues that the successor of Abe will continue to forge a mutually beneficial relationship with Russia and Putin.
  • “In fact, Japan views Russia as a critical partner in the future to counterbalance China’s influence in the region and as a strong partner in developing a more peaceful, prosperous and stable Northeast Asia. Any new PM will have the same broader strategic priorities vis-à-vis Russia.”
• A commentary article from the nationalist Pravda Report claims that the territorial dispute in the northern island is the main reason Abe was unable to reach a deal with Russia, and that the two countries are unlikely to conclude a peace treaty in the near future.
  • “In general, there was no progress reached in Russia-Japan peace treaty talks. The issue has been shelved yet again. As for possible successors to Shinzo Abe as prime minister, almost all of them share a much stance. For example, they name the secretary of the Liberal Democratic Party, former Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba or the sitting Defense Minister and former foreign minister Taro Kono. They consider Shinzo Abe’s stance on the negotiations with Moscow too soft.”

 

RPI acknowledges support from the MacArthur Foundation and the Carnegie Corporation of New York for its activities.