Policy Alert #252 | January 26, 2023
The relationships and power dynamics between China, India, Japan and Russia in 2022 were shaped by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The proximity between the Japanese and American stances towards the invasion was expected, and confirmed during Japanese Prime Minister Kishida’s meeting with U.S. President Biden on January 13. However, the way that India’s government under Prime Minister Modi would react was unknown. As such, his interactions with Russian President Putin were heavily scrutinized and the initial Indian declarations regarding the war carried a lot of weight. On the other side of the spectrum, China was not widely expected to side with the US. Instead, the interrogation resided in the level of support that Chinese President Xi Jinping would show towards Putin.
Another important factor in the quadrilateral balance, in addition to the evolution of each rising power’s relationship with Russia, was the state of the China-India relationship, in the midst of bloody border skirmishes in Ladakh. As such, a worsening relationship between China and India could prevent the two countries from aligning on a common position and presenting a united front. This was reinforced by domestic encouragement in both China and India for aggressive posturing and provocations, such as the invitation of border commander Qi Fabao at the NCPCC to celebrate his involvement in the June 15, 2020 skirmish in which 20 Indian soldiers were killed. In parallel, Japan announced a strengthening of Japan India military ties, which was seen by China as being encouraged by the U.S. as it tries to isolate Russia and China.
This policy alert will focus on media coverage of international meetings where heads of state met, such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Summit, the COP 27, and G20. Coverage of other events, such as the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China (NCPCC), Vostok 2022 military exercises in Russia, or ASEAN forums, also provided information and context to understand internal and external perceptions of each of these rising powers’ current stance towards the war in Ukraine, as well as the fluctuations of their relationships with each other.
Read the full Policy Alert here.
By Gabriel Savagner, M.A. candidate in Security Policy Studies, Elliott School of International Affairs at GW. Research Assistant at GW’s Sigur Center for Asian Studies.
