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Terada, Takashi

Preview: This essay examines the U.S. and Chinese visions for the East Asian economic order and discusses the specific points of convergence and divergence. It assesses the potential for the development-focused initiatives proposed by China, such as the AIIB and BRI, to disrupt the existing U.S.-led regional economic architecture. A competition between these two superpowers has evolved around the rules governing the regional economic order, and whose rules become dominant is at the core of this power game. This essay argues that, should the Trump administration continue to withdraw from Asian trade multilateralism, the United States may create an economic power vacuum in which China can expand its influence—for instance, by promoting the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) with lower-quality provisions as an alternative regional integration framework. The Abe administration’s efforts to conclude the TPP without the United States were thus significant to position the resulting TPP-11 agreement as a rule-setter in the Asia-Pacific.

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