Preview: This essay assesses the implications of relations between China and Russia for the U.S.-Japan alliance, taking into consideration the impact of the Sino-Russian partnership as well as the challenges that each country poses. Differences in interests and the non-binding nature of the strategic partnership currently prevent the relationship from becoming a formal alliance. Still, China and Russia have overlapping interests and their cooperation is growing, a trend that is unlikely to be slowed by the policies of other states.
This essay imagines the impact of the partnership on the U.S.-Japan alliance in three scenarios in order to better understand what situations the United States and Japan want to avoid. The general finding is that, while the United States needs a long-term strategy for countering Russian challenges in limited areas, the U.S.-Japan alliance should develop even longer-term and more comprehensive efforts to counter China’s challenges without expecting a quick victory or exacerbating Sino-Russian collaboration.