Abstract
The future of nuclear energy has become a subject of much debate. Will nuclear power plants become the central part of our energy strategies, or will safety concerns spell the end of the nuclear renaissance?
Before discussing the problems facing nuclear energy, let us look at what energy security means in this day and age.
First, even if a certain primary energy resource is plentiful, it will not be in great demand if the associated costs are greater than a certain proportion of the GDP. This balance between GDP and energy consumption is key to economic development. The cost of primary energy has immediate repercussions for the rest of the economy. In the early 1980s spending on energy rose to more than 10 percent of GDP. The proportion was the same in 2008. Both periods were a time of economic crisis. Such high energy prices had proved too much for the economy and society to bear.
Second, the gap in energy consumption between the rich countries and the developing world is closing. Rapid economic growth in the developing countries is increasing global energy demand. Their per-capita energy consumption figures have been gradually catching up with the rich world’s indicators for the past five decades. In the 1960s the average for the developing world was less than 5 percent of Western figures. It has now grown to about 15 percent. Industrial growth in the developing countries, which is the main engine of higher energy consumption, is now much more rapid than in the developed economies. That trend is being reinforced by the flow of investment and technologies from the rich world to the developing countries, where labor is cheap. There are now fewer barriers to cross-border flows of expertise, technologies, materials, and equipment. The circulation of information, know-how, and products has become much easier. As energy consumption in the developing countries catches up with the rich world, the demand for primary energy resources will see rapid growth. It will triple in as little as 10 years if the developing countries manage to maintain their GDP growth figures at their current level. If growth slows, that tripling might take up to 40 years.
Third, the problem of rapidly growing energy consumption can be resolved by diversifying our energy sources; renewables and nuclear energy will be especially important. Hydroelectric energy and coal will also have a role to play. The easiest way to meet growing demand would be to ramp up oil and gas output*but global oil production may have already peaked. Natural gas still has some room for growth, but gas alone will not be enough to plug the gap between energy supply and demand. There are still plenty of hydrocarbons left underground, but they are becoming increasingly costly to produce; at some point developing the untapped oil and gas fields in difficult geological conditions and harsh climates will simply become uneconomical.
Based on the three considerations outlined above, this article will analyze the role nuclear energy can play in energy security. It will also look into the obstacles on the way to increasing that role, and possible ways of addressing them.
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