Abstract
“Public interest in our strategic posture has faded over the decades,” former Defense Secretary James Schlesinger has observed. “In the Cold War, it was a most prominent subject. Now, much of the public is barely interested in it. And that has been true of the Congress as well.” This situation is likely to change, however, as several developments in the coming months and years return to prominence issues concerning the future of U.S. nuclear forces and the dangers from the nuclear weapons of others. President Obama and his Russian counterpart have announced the framework for an arms reduction agreement to replace the 1991 Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START), which expires in December 2009. The new agreement will be the subject of Senate and public debate. The president, along with a number of former top officials, world leaders, and advocacy groups, also has urged redoubled efforts to eliminate nuclear weapons altogether. This “zero” proposal already has caused controversy. In addition to these arms control initiatives, a congressionally mandated Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) is under way in the Defense Department and scheduled for completion by the end of 2009. NPR findings concerning U.S. nuclear weapons policy, strategy, and force structure undoubtedly will be matters of interest and contention both at home and abroad. In particular, key allies may look to the review for new measures to reinforce the commitment of U.S. nuclear forces to their defense. Allied anxieties have been aroused by the nuclear weapons programs of North Korea and Iran, the nuclear force modernization activities of Russia and China, and the various threats made by these countries. The North Korean and Iranian programs also have highlighted the increasing danger of nuclear proliferation. That danger and possible remedies will be topics for the May 2010 international conference to review the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). In short, the press of near-term events will compel greater attention to nuclear weapons-related issues.
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