Abstract
The dispute over jurisdiction of the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea has the potential to draw in major powers who are non-claimant states. At issue is the prospect of contention among parties to the dispute posing a threat to maritime communications. Should such a prospect arise, it would pose a serious threat to the interests of Japan. This article assesses the nature of these interests and identities the constraints on their active pursuit.
Half a century after the end of the Pacific War, Tokyo seeks a political status commensurate with its economic standing; it is no longer satisfied to be merely a prime contributor to the United Nations and foreign aid programs. A desire to play a more active political role developed after the Gulf War in the wake of domestic and international criticism that Japan engaged primarily in checkbook diplomacy. Since the end of the Cold War and the demise of the Soviet Union, some analysts have suggested that if the United States were to reduce significantly its commitment to East Asia, a power vacuum would emerge in the region, which includes the South China Sea. China and Japan are the prime candidates to fill that vacuum. But even if the U.S. remains engaged and the U.S.-Japan alliance is maintained, Japan may still be expected to seek a larger role in regional affairs, one almost certainly extending to the South China Sea.
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