abstract
For the first time in a generation, Southeast Asia has an opportunity for lasting peace. The end of the Cold War, the ebbing of the Cambodian conflict, and rapprochement between Vietnam and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), and even between Vietnam and China, have set the stage for a positive regional security relationship. But the dispute over the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea has become an obstacle to realizing this goal? Six governments–China, Vietnam, Taiwan, the Philippines, Malaysia, and Brunei—–claim all or part of the Spratly Islands and their attendant maritime area. The seabed adjacent to this group of islands and reefs is thought to harbor oil and gas, and the islands are of strategic significance for sealane defense, interdiction, and surveillance. Military forces of the competing claimants occupy the features in a crazy-quilt pattern, and the territorial and jurisdictional disputes could result in conflict, and even encourage new regional divisions. What makes these disputes particularly sensitive and dangerous is that they are perceived as challenges to the integrity of the nation-states and to the strength and effectiveness of their governments by both internal and external politics. In addition to the claimants, the disputes involve the navigational and economic interests of the United States and Japan, and thus have become one of the main security problems affecting the entire region. Indeed, United States Secretary of State Warren Christopher has warned that the United States will neither allow nor condone violence in the South China Sea.
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