Abstract
An essential driver of the Syrian civil war has been the involvement of Iran, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and, to a lesser extent, the United Arab Emirates in every aspect of the struggle. Their role has influenced the calculations, positioning, behaviour and fortunes of the principal Syrian players. Irrespective of whether the effect was intended, this regional competition has revealed and deepened the many fault lines that cross Syrian politics and society. It has also exacerbated the polarisation of the Middle East.
In the case of Iran and the major Gulf states, ‘spill-in’ – an effect in which a growing security vacuum attracts external interference – is a more apt description of the dynamics at play than ‘spillover’. As none of these countries border Syria, they have so far largely escaped the direct consequences of the war that have overwhelmed its immediate neighbours, such as refugee flows and threats to security. While they had not yet occurred at the time of writing, it was likely that Iran and the major Gulf states would at some point experience spillover effects in the form of jihadist activity or regional security aftershocks.
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