Abstract
The breathing space offered by a regional flight-test ban could facilitate Cooperation on missile defences and the building of greater trust and confidence Between Moscow and Washington.
In 2007 Washington announced that it would place long-range interceptors in Poland and an advanced missile-tracking radar in the Czech Republic as part of a larger system (known as the Third Site, after Ft Greely, Alaska and Vandenberg AFB, California) designed to protect the US mainland from the emerging Iranian ballistic missile threat. Moscow objected to the placement of missile-defence assets in Europe, claiming that their presence threatened Russia’s nuclear deterrent forces. After a congressionally mandated review of US missile-defence plans, US President Barack Obama decided in September 2009 to shelve the Third Site architecture in favour of deploying proven regional systems better suited to protecting against Iran’s current and near-future capabilities. US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates said the decision had been driven ‘almost exclusively by the change in intelligence and better technology’. Known as the European Phased Adaptive Approach (PAA), the new missile-defence strategy provided US policymakers with the capacity to deploy systems of increasing capability in phases and in accordance with the threat posed by Iran’s missiles.
And while Washington hoped that the PAA would alleviate Russian mistrust, many in Moscow continue to view missile defence, especially Phase IV, with suspicion. Due to be deployed in 2020, Phase IV interceptors are to be capable of intercepting intercontinental-range ballistic missiles (ICBMs). Debate still rages as to the real performance characteristics of the interceptors slated for Phase IV (the technical parameters are yet to be established by Washington) and whether Moscow’s concerns are valid. But perceptions are strong and American reassurances are viewed with scepticism. Russian suspicions will be allayed (or proven) only after the United States begins producing and testing prototypes of the SM-3 Block IIB interceptor, when the real technical capabilities of the Phase IV system can be accurately determined.
 
Read the rest of the article here