Abstract
The structure of the oil and gas industry is being disrupted by technical developments which increase supply and reduce demand, the reversal of growth in demand in transport in OECD countries and less dependence of the US and Europe on Middle East oil supplies. Upstream, expectations of scarcity are changing to expectations that, at current prices, national oil companies face increasing competition from public listed companies which use diverse advanced technologies to develop reserves in areas outside NOC control. The public listed companies also have the opportunity to bring specialized technology to match NOC needs. Downstream oil markets are dividing into the OECD markets where growth has been reversed and a non-OECD markets where it continues. This is a challenge for the major public listed companies whose downstream operations are concentrated in the OECD. They may respond by focusing on local advantages or by separating the downstream from their upstream businesses. The natural gas industry is being transformed by new discoveries, particularly in the US, but regional markets remain separated by transport costs and pricing systems. The challenge will be to find prices which will grow both the supply and demand in each region.
PDF (with subscription)