Abstract
This study presents an assessment of the energy security of Thailand using nineteen indicators. The assessment period is for a 45 year period (1986-2030), and used published data for 1986-2009, and applying three energy scenarios for the period 2010-2030. The three scenarios considered were high economic growth and least cost option (HEG&LC), low carbon society (LCS), and current policy (CP). The results show that LCS scenario shows higher energy security or lower vulnerability to energy risk on a long term. However, to achieve this, the additional target of energy saving by 2030 should be changed from 25% reduction of energy intensity of final energy consumption to 60% energy intensity reduction of primary energy compared to 2009 level. One benefit would be an increase in the non-carbon incentive fuel portfolio by 33% of total primary energy supply in 2030. A reduction in crude oil and natural gas domestic production will be offset by an increase in their imports. CO emission reduction of 123 MtCO and improvements in domestic energy reserves will also result.