Abstract
This paper considers issues of economics and national security, and in particular of the relationship between energy and security, with a focus on the United States. How do developments on world energy markets and US energy policy affect American power and the prospects for war involving the US? What policies should the US pursue to advance its international political goals and enhance its relative security? I address these two questions, and, given current events (the US financial crisis of autumn 2008 that is still unfolding as I write) in a brief concluding section I broaden the discussion and link some of these issues with questions regarding American financial vulnerability and the future of the international use of the dollar (and its consequences).
My principal argument is that energy insecurity is a myth – that is, concerns by states that they will not be able to assure adequate energy supplies to meet their domestic needs, in turn presenting leaders with economic crisis and domestic political outrage, are misguided. States need not be worried about this problem, with the exception of a few unlikely scenarios (about which more below), especially if short term disruptions (easily managed by relatively modest contingency planning) are excluded from consideration. However, and this is a big however, while the political stability of the international system is not threatened by energy insecurity, it is threatened by what can be called “the cult of energy insecurity”, that is, the erroneous belief that national security requires ambitious and vigilant foreign policy measures to assure adequate access to energy.
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