Summary
Indigenous weakness and eroded U.S. support give Taiwan little choice other than continued accommodation of overwhelming and ever-increasing Chinese leverage.
Cross-strait relations continue to improve because this trend is perceived as being in the interests of the three main actors: the governments of China, Taiwan, and the U.S. The Taiwan presidential election of 2012 is unlikely to seriously alter recent improvements. Many in Taiwan and abroad favor what they erroneously see as a status quo in which the Taiwan administration enjoys independence of action. However, China’s economic, military, and diplomatic leverage over Taiwan increasingly constrains Taipei to follow a path leading to accommodation of and eventual reunification with China. Taiwan’s weak self-strengthening and a marked decline in U.S. support for the island’s freedom of action further bind it to the recent trajectory of accommodating China.
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