Abstract
This article reconsiders the conventional wisdom that the prospects for nuclear proliferation in Southeast Asia are too small to mention. After outlining the assumptions that underpin the conventional wisdom, it identifies recent regional and global trends that tend to weaken those assumptions and develops two proliferation scenarios, one centered on Burma and the other on Indonesia. It finds that the prospects for nuclear proliferation in Southeast Asia before 2016 remain nearly as remote as the conventional wisdom suggests, yet current trends suggest that the foundation for future proliferation may be laid during the coming decade. The scenarios suggest that attention ought to be focused not just on countries that are likely to proliferate, but on ways that Southeast Asian individuals might be drawn into regional and global proliferation networks.