Abstract
Two factors such as nuclear weapons and Military First system have been supporting Kim Jong-il’s administration. By estimating where two factors will go, we can forecast North Korea’s whereabouts. The future of nuclear weapons and Military First system will be influenced by North Korea’s strategic options. The options which North Korea can choose are classified into ‘transformation’, ‘compromise’, ‘bandwagon’ by two variables such as regime security and economic recuperation. Firstly, ‘transformation’ is an option which North Korea’s regime stability can be assured and its economy possibly restored by opening up to the world market. Following this option, North Korean regime will land softly by relinquishing its nuclear weapon program and dissolution of Military First system. Secondly, ‘compromise’ is an option which North Korea retains limited nuclear deterrence and pursues a limited open economy. By this option, North Korea will not abandon its nuclear weapons program but keep the rule of non-proliferation of WMD and pursue limited economic reform. However the possibility of North Korean regime’s hard landing cannot be ruled out if U.S. economic sanctions against North Korea will continue. Lastly, ‘bandwagon’ is an option which North Korea still possesses its own nuclear deterrence and pursues dependent development by incorporating into Chinese economic bloc in the conflicts between the U.S. and China. However the possibility of this option comes down with growing the necessity of cooperation of two countries in the new Obama administration. It is desirable that North Korea chooses the option of ‘transformation’ for South Korea. However North Korea, will confront the task how it retrieves of its inferiority in the area of conventional armaments in this option. North Korea has high possibility of the ‘compromise’ option by judgment of the recent North Korea’s 2nd nuclear test. It cannot rule out the possibility of North Korean regime’s hard landing though it also has the possibility of its muddling through.