Policy Alert #179 | December 7, 2018

On November 30th and December 1st, the Group of Twenty (G20) Summit convened in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Unlike the stalemate at the APEC Summit, the G20 managed to pass a declaration championing “fair and sustainable development,” however, the omission of a clause criticizing protectionism did not go unnoticed. In this RPI Policy Alert, we examine how well the Rising Powers’ bilateral blitzes culminated in success at the G20 Summit.

 

CHINA

In his speech to fellow G20 leaders, Chinese President Xi Jinping urged, “We should firmly uphold free trade and the rules-based multilateral trading system.” In this regard, China came away from the Summit with a number of successes. President Xi and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe agreed to accelerate negotiations in the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), in which China and India are key holdouts, and Xi expressed his pleasure “that China-Japan relations have taken on a new look.” Xi’s meeting with US President Donald Trump “had provocative and fruitful discussions on trade and economy,” which ultimately resulted in the US agreeing to delay the scheduled increase in tariffs on Chinese goods from ten to twenty-five percent to facilitate ongoing negotiations between the two countries.

• The state-supported China Daily celebrated the success of the G20 Summit: “The recent APEC meeting was notable for the spoiling efforts of the United States, with US Vice-President Mike Pence striking a divisive note that was at odds with the solidarity of purpose shown by the other participants. The G20 meeting was more realistic – and pragmatic – with the leaders showing they are willing to shelve differences to engage in constructive dialogue.” In response to the announcement of the ceasefire in the trade war, the Daily put the ball in the US court: “China has said that it will work to resolve the US rational concerns－and it has backed up its words with actions by agreeing to expand US imports－but a lasting improvement in bilateral relations is still dependent on the sincerity of the US to engage in equal-footed consultations with China, bearing in mind the reality of China’s situation.”
• The nationalist Global Times appealed to the economic wellbeing of small and middle income countries who are excluded from the forum: “The world should by no means give up on multilateralism. The international system, which is based on multilateralism, is the umbrella that protects middle-sized and small countries.” Following the successful meeting between Xi and Trump, the Times appeared to call for a spirit of reconciliation among its Chinese readers: “The Chinese public needs to keep in mind that China-US trade negotiations fluctuate. China’s reform and opening-up’s broad perspective recognizes that the rest of the world does things differently. As that picture is getting bigger, we can accept those differences while acknowledging them peacefully, and be more active and open-minded in solving problems through interaction.”
• The independent South China Morning Post compared the G20 to last month’s gridlocked APEC: “[T]he G20 agreement can be seen as an achievement in itself, that sets the direction for the officials and their political masters responsible for putting the multilateral world trading system on a free and fair path.” The Post noted, however, the omission of a clause calling for members to ‘fight protectionism.’”

 

JAPAN

In addition to his meeting with President Xi, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe met with President Trump, Russian President Vladimir Putin, and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Despite tension between Russia and European powers over the country’s seizure of Ukranian naval vessels in late November, ties between Russia and Japan continue to improve. Abe and Putin announced that their Foreign Ministers, Taro Kono and Sergey Lavrov, respectively, would negotiate a formal peace treaty before Abe’s trip to Russia early next year. During his meeting with Argentine President Mauricio Macri, Abe outlined his goals for the next G20 Summit, which he will host: “At the G20 Osaka Summit next June, I will set our goal to materialize a free, open, and inclusive and sustainable future society and promote efforts to this end, through our development efforts centered on the Sustainable Development Goals and contributions to addressing global issues, along with driving the world economy through the promotion of free trade and innovation as well as simultaneously achieving economic growth and inequality correction.”

• The left-leaning Mainichi Shimbun echoed concerns about the glaring omission in the G20 declaration: “The latest G-20 summit in Buenos Aires could not include ‘anti-protectionism’ in its final statement due to U.S. opposition. Tokyo bears a heavy responsibility to mediate between the U.S. and China toward rebuilding international cooperation.”
• The centrist Japan Times expressed concern that President Trump might look for a new target for tariffs: “There is concern in Tokyo that Washington will increase pressure on Japan next year when bilateral trade talks begin in earnest; the truce in the dispute with China has also raised fears that Trump will turn his full attention to the relationship with Japan. […] Abe must help restore the commitment to free and fair trade and to multilateralism.”
• The conservative Yomiuri Shimbun hailed Abe’s efforts at G20: “Japan must clearly spell out its policy to counter protectionism and boost free and fair trade. […] Abe’s summit talks with the leaders of the United States and China on the sidelines of the G20 meeting were a well-timed response to this issue.” In response to the truce in the US-China trade war, the Yomiuri called for the spirit of cooperation to continue: “It is crucial for the United States and China to avoid an escalation in their rivalry for supremacy and any accidental clash, but instead to strive to stabilize the Asia-Pacific region.”

 

INDIA

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi participated in a first-ever JAI (Japan, America, and India) trilateral meeting on the sidelines of the G20 in addition to the BRICS session and a separate RIC meeting with President Putin and President Xi. Modi appeared to characterize the JAI as a counter to the China-led platforms, stating that “the JAI is dedicated to democratic values.” In a press conference following the JAI session, Foreign Secretary Vijay Gokhale explained that “[A]ll agreed that a free, open, inclusive, and rules based order is essential for the [Indo-Pacific] region’s peace and security.” In his speech at the BRICS Leaders’ Informal Meeting, Modi similarly raised the issue of “rules-based” growth and interactions: “To ensure a rule-based world order we have to work together with multilateral institutions like UN, WTO, UNFCC, World Bank, so as to maintain their relevance and they also reflect the realities of current time.” At India’s request, Italy forfeited its hosting of the 2022 G20 Summit in order for India to host during its 75th anniversary of independence.

• The liberal Indian Express praised Modi’s ability to “sit down with the leaders of the US and Japan […] and, soon after, parley with the presidents of China and Russia” as a welcome sign that India can maintain its policy of “nonalignment” while still flexing its diplomatic muscle: “All major powers are engaging each other and Delhi must do the same without any inhibitions. If India’s strategic opportunities with the major powers are real, Delhi’s main weakness has been the inability to fully translate this extraordinary political leverage into substantive economic and military gains.”
• The Hindustan Times, another liberal paper, instead focused on two substantive issues of the G20 Summit: climate and trade. The Times described the former as a “failure” of the Summit and called for India to “speak out, even if it is the only voice doing so, on climate.” On the latter, the Times advocated for the country to “focus on building an alternative to multilateralism.”

 

RUSSIA

Russian seizure of three Ukrainian naval vessels in the Black Sea late last month loomed over Russia’s efforts at the G20, as evidenced in a press conference by Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. However, Russia’s diplomacy with its Asian neighbors appeared to weather the storm. Following a meeting with Prime Minister Abe, President Vladimir Putin announced a planned bilateral summit in Russia early next year, and suggested, “Maybe I will get a chance to visit Japan as well.” President Xi accepted Putin’s invitation to the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum in 2019, and reciprocated with an invitation for Putin to attend the second Belt and Road Forum in April 2019.

• State-owned Sputnik News highlighted commentary from foreign scholars and analysts regarding the G20 Summit, with a special interest in the US’s political maneuvering. US political analyst Scott Bennett and Princeton University Professor of Politics and International Affairs Richard Falk covered the current state of US-Russia relations as a context for the US officials’ refusal to meet with their Russian counterparts, while Renmin University Professor of Finance Zhao Xijun, offered insight to the US-China trade war ceasefire.
• Ahead of the Summit, Dutch-owned independent Moscow Times featured an op-ed by Alexander Gabuev, senior fellow and chair of the Russia in Asia-Pacific Program at the Carnegie Moscow Center, that outlined Russia’s main objectives at the G20. On Russia’s ties with China, Gabuev argued, “Ties between Russia and China are very unlikely to deteriorate in the foreseeable future. […]The Kremlin doesn’t fully trust China, but it knows that the national interests of both countries coincide in many areas and that China will be a predictable and pragmatic partner for years to come. By contrast, Moscow sees U.S. leaders as unpredictable and untrustworthy.”

 

BRAZIL

Brazil convened with other members of the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) platform on the sidelines of the G20 Summit. Notably, the joint declaration of the informal meeting concluded with the leaders expressing that they “look forward to the 11th BRICS Summit to be hosted by Brazil in 2019 and extend our full support to Brazil as the incoming BRICS Chair.” Although current President Michel Temer has championed multilateralism and Brazil’s alignment with China, his successor, President-Elect Jair Bolsonaro ran on a policy platform to return to unilateralism and closer ties with the US.

• The Valor Economico business newspaper reported the minor role played by Brazil in the Buenos Aires G20 Summit, either due to current President Temer’s poor approval ratings or the great uncertainty regarding the new government to be led by the president-elect Bolsonaro. Bolsonaro did not attend or send any representatives to the Summit. The article also highlighted the low number of bilateral meetings on Temer’s schedule, which would signal the low capacity of the country to engage partners in discussions parallel to the Summit official events.
• The El Pais Brasil emphasized President Temer’s “silent participation” in Buenos Aires in contrast to the lively performances by the South American giant in previous summits. In addition to minimal sideline talks, Temer did not have an official bilateral event with Argentina, an important trade partner. El Pais Brasil reported that Temer was bidding farewell to the China-aligned multilateral forums he supported, particularly BRICS.
• The Nexo online portal interviewed University of San Paulo Professor of International Affairs Guilherme Casaroes, who opined that from 2019 onwards Brazil may adopt a more conservative approach regarding sensitive topics, such as migration, sustainability, and corporate governance, that aligns with the US government diplomacy in order to establish close ties with Donald Trump–a key campaign platform for President-Elect Bolsonaro.

RPI acknowledges support from the MacArthur Foundation and Carnegie Corporation of New York for its activities.