Peace talks between the Taliban and the Afghan government resumed in the second week of September, signaling the next iteration of complex negotiations against the backdrop of the Covid-19 pandemic. Since assuming office, President Donald Trump has been vocal about his commitment to pulling troops out of Afghanistan and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo flew to Doha to launch the latest talks. If successful, all American military personnel will leave Afghanistan by spring of 2021.

Challenges to a successful outcome is manifold: turmoil of Afghan domestic politics, intrusion from the broader region, and the inconsistent foreign policy of the United States on Afghanistan. Prior attempts to negotiate a roadmap to peace in Afghanistan include a series of meetings between China, the United States, and Russia in 2019, in which the major world powers notably convened without involving Afghanistan itself.

This year, more attempts were initiated for the peace process, which include the plan signed by the United States and Afghanistan on March 1st, stipulating an immediate cease-fire and a commitment by the Taliban that Afghanistan would not serve as a base for terrorist activities against the United States. Further talks for peace were scheduled to begin on March 10 but were paused over the issue of prisoner exchange. As talks subsequently resumed, however, Afghan Senior Vice President Amrullah Saleh was targeted in a convey bombing in Kabul, presumed to be by the Taliban.

With the consistent level of violence in Afghanistan, there is concern that President Trump’s plan to withdraw American troops will add to the region’s instability. Failure of any agreement brokered by the United States leaves room for other rising powers such as China and Russia to influence future negotiations and outcomes even if the process is now ostensibly intra-Afghan. In this RPI Policy Alert, we ask how the Rising Powers are reacting to the on again, off again peace talks on Afghanistan and how they view their interests being served.

Read the full Policy Alert here.