The Rising Powers’ seasonal summits began last month with the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation convening in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, on June 13-14, 2019. Heads of State from members China, India, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Russia, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan gathered alongside representatives from nine observer nations and international organizations. Most notably, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani attended and called for the remaining signatories of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) to honor the deal despite the US’s withdrawal and re-imposition of sanctions against the country. As the SCO Summit convened, two oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman were attacked, and the US was quick to put the blame on Iran. But in the resulting Bishkek Declaration of the SCO’s Head of State Council, the member states stated that they “believe the consistent implementation of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action on Iran’s nuclear programme to be a priority and, in compliance with UN Security Council Resolution 2231, call on all the participants to strictly fulfill their obligations for the comprehensive and effective implementation of the document.” There was a perceptible sense that the G20 was likely to be more acrimonious than the SCO.

CHINA

In a press release covering President Xi Jinping’s meeting with President Rouhani, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs expressed China’s support for the JCPOA and its relationship with Iran: “The Chinese side always views its relations with Iran from a strategic and long-term perspective. No matter how the international and regional situation may change, the Chinese side is ready to work with the Iranian side to push for the sustained and steady development of China-Iran comprehensive strategic partnership.” In an interview with the Russian press, Xi emphasized the importance of Sino-Russian cooperation in multilateral organizations such as SCO and BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa): “In the 18 years since the SCO’s inception, China and Russia have maintained close coordination and collaboration. As a result, the organization has kept growing and made important contribution to peace, stability, development and prosperity in our region.”

• The government-supported China Daily juxtaposed the diplomatic spirit of the SCO Summit with the anticipated tension at the G20 Summit later this month in Osaka: “The US could take a leaf out of the cooperative book of the SCO […] whose members appreciate that potential inducements for confrontation can be the impetus for cooperation, since differences do not have to be reasons for conflicts and wars, but can instead create space and potential for dialogue and mutual understanding.” The Daily also defended the growing ties between China and Russia from apparent criticism: “Forging alliances among some countries against other countries would undoubtedly disrupt globalization. So that is the last thing China seeks to do. […] China’s diplomacy is inclusive and open. It seeks to develop friendly relations with all countries in pursuit of shared benefits.” In this effort, the media outlet appeared to compare China and Russia’s “tree of friendship that continues to grow” in another editorial against the recent death of a tree of friendship planted by US President Trump and French President Emmanuel Macron.

• The nationalist Global Times expressed pride in the role of SCO and China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in engaging with non-Western developing countries: “The BRI and SCO were proposed by China. This is China’s important contribution to world governance, and the contribution is shared by the world. As trade protectionism and unilateralism are bringing unprecedented impacts to free trade and multilateralism, the BRI and the SCO show their outstanding value. One day in the future, the world will sincerely appreciate China’s efforts.”

• The independent South China Morning Post meanwhile kept its focus trained on the escalation of tensions between Iran and the United States, and noted Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s efforts during his state visit to Iran as the SCO convened: “Whether Abe made progress or not, his reaching out on behalf of the US at least shows the White House is interested in stability in the Middle East. With escalated tensions following the latest attack, there is every reason to heighten efforts for dialogue.”

INDIA

Fresh from a landslide reelection last month, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi took a thinly veiled jab at his Pakistani counterpart Imran Khan in a speech regarding SCO member states’ responsibility to combat terrorism: “Countries sponsoring, aiding and funding terrorism must be held accountable.” Foreign Secretary Keshav Gokhale reported that Modi had aired his country’s frustrations with Chinese President Xi: “Pakistan needs to create an atmosphere free of terror, but at this stage we do not see it happening. We expect Islamabad to take concrete action.” A planned meeting between Modi and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani on the sidelines of the SCO summit was reportedly cancelled due to schedule conflict.

• The left-leaning Hindu argued that while India has not successfully countered China’s Belt and Road Initiative or made significant headway in its relations with Pakistan through the forum, “In a world driven by geopolitical contestations, SCO membership provides India a vital counter to some of the other groupings it is a part of, balancing out its stated policy of pursuing ‘multi-alignments’. It is a platform also for alignments on issues such as energy security, connectivity and trade.”

• The liberal Hindustan Times similarly noted that the SCO was a key forum through which India could foster ties with Central Asian states as a counterweight to China and Pakistan: “China’s overweening position is so evident that India had to agree not to directly criticise Pakistan in Bishkek. But many SCO members are pleased to join in poking Pakistan through more general statements about terrorism. Yet SCO is no one’s puppet: even China’s hopes for an SCO development bank and free trade agreement were shot down by others.”

• The center-right Times of India was more cynical about the forum’s usefulness given the geographic reality: “Pakistan […] blocks India’s land access to central Asia – even if India’s SCO membership is a way of ensuring it isn’t excluded from the region altogether. Perhaps Beijing could walk its talk and get Islamabad to unblock that access, which too would count as a significant peace opening.”

• C. Raja Mohan, director of the Institute of South Asian Studies at the National University of Singapore and consulting editor on foreign affairs for the Indian Express, called attention to Modi’s maneuvering around strengthened Sino-Russian ties and tense relations with the US: “Like Washington, Delhi too might have underestimated the prospects for a deeper alliance between Moscow and Beijing. Delhi can no longer make light of the implications of the emerging Sino-Russian alliance for India’s engagement with other powers, especially the US, and the regional consequences for India’s neighbourhood, especially the Af[ghanistan]-Pak[istan] region.”

JAPAN

Just before the SCO opened, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe made a state visit to Iran June 12-13, and was the first trip by a Japanese Prime Minister since 1979.  During his stay, two oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman–including one Japanese ship–were attacked. Prime Minister Abe reiterated the need for calm and Japan’s commitment to de-escalating the situation: “Armed conflict needs to be prevented at all costs. Peace and stability in the Middle East is indispensable not only for this region but for global prosperity. No one is hoping for war. We would like to play the maximum role we can for easing tension. That is what brought me to Iran.” The US denied Japan a waiver from sanctions for importing Iranian oil in April.

• The progressive Asahi Shimbun called for Abe to use the upcoming G20 Summit in Osaka as a means of saving the deal: “The current crisis has been created by the Trump administration, in the first place. It was triggered by Trump’s unilateral decision to pull the United States out of the Iran nuclear deal, which was the result of many years of multilateral diplomatic efforts. […] Abe should continue his efforts to help ease the tensions between Washington and Tehran during the [G20 Summit], for example, by securing a pledge by the countries concerned to work for a peaceful solution.”

• The liberal Mainichi echoed the suggestion that the upcoming G20 Summit is a useful venue where Japan “should proactively make diplomatic efforts to help ease tensions” over the Iran.

• The centrist Japan Times commended Abe for his efforts in reaching out to Iran: “Abe had almost no choice but to take his trip to Iran even though there was little chance of a breakthrough. It is easy to call his effort a failure, but if he has established a connection that can facilitate conversations in the event of a crisis, then the trip should be considered a success.”

• The conservative Yomiuri Shimbun condemned the attack on civilian vessels and warned that the “hard-line stances” of the US and Iran were putting the global community at risk: “Destabilization of the situation in the Middle East will trigger spikes in crude oil prices, dealing a great blow to the global economy. The United States and Iran, the latter a great regional power, should recognize the weight of their responsibilities.”

RUSSIA

In his speech to the SCO Heads of State Council, Russian President Vladimir Putin noted that much “work to settle crises and peacefully resolve conflicts” in the region would be under Russia’s presidency of the group following the summit’s end. In addition to assisting Afghanistan with “achieving national reconciliation and economic recovery” and combatting terrorism in Syria, protecting the JCPOA was on the list of Russia’s priorities: “The US withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action – as a reminder, it was unanimously approved by the UN Security Council in 2015 – is not only destabilising the region, but also can undermine the nuclear non-proliferation regime. While presiding in the SCO, we intend to work to ensure that the parties to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action fulfil their obligations. We consider this to be the only logical and correct path.”

• State-owned TASS provided an English summary of an article published by Russian newspaper Izvestia that featured an interview with Sergey Pravosudov, Director General of the National Energy Institute, regarding the role of energy security in the recent strengthening of Sino-Russian ties. Pravosudov explained that US pressure on China is encouraging the country to look for more secure sources of energy: “The Eastern Siberia-Pacific Ocean oil pipeline and the Power of Siberia gas pipeline are becoming the main arteries for reliable and safe supplies to Chinese consumers of oil and gas.”

• State-owned Sputnik News featured an interview with Amrita Dhillon, founding editor of the New Delhi-based magazine The Kootneeti, regarding the dynamics between China, India, Pakistan, and Russia as they relate to the SCO. Sputnik also spotlighted interviews with former US Foreign Service Officer Jim Jatras and security analyst and former nuclear reactor operator for the US Navy Mark Sleboda regarding the US “jumping” to the conclusion that Iran orchestrated the attacks on two oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman.