Policy Alert #247 | March 24, 2022
Today marks one month since Russia ordered a “special military operation” and advanced into Ukraine on February 24, 2022. At least ten million Ukrainians have been displaced internally or have fled abroad as refugees. Thousands more people were able to escape cities under attack this week, but many remain trapped as humanitarian corridors keep failing. Intense fighting continues over several key places, including the capital of Kyiv and the strategic southern port city of Mariupol. If Russian troops took control of Mariupol, they would hold most of the stretch between the Donbas region in the east and Crimea in the south.
NATO has rejected Kyiv’s request for a no-fly zone, reasoning that the step would provoke Russia into a waging a larger war that could pit the U.S. and its allies against the nuclear-armed country. In a video posted on social media, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy slammed NATO over the decision.
US President Biden arrived in Brussels on March 23 ahead of emergency meetings with NATO allies aimed at presenting a united front against Russia. The US and its European allies plan to announce new sanctions for Russia and new humanitarian aid for Ukraine. Biden also plans to talk to European partners about China’s ties to Russia. The US is concerned Beijing will provide economic or military aid to Moscow. Biden discussed this concern with Chinese President Xi Jinping in a virtual meeting on March 18. European Union leaders are planning their own summit with Xi on April 1.
Ukrainian and Russian negotiators discussed a proposed deal in full for the first time on March 14. The two sides have made significant progress on a tentative peace plan including a ceasefire and Russian withdrawal if Kyiv declares neutrality and accepts limits on its armed forces. Russian President Vladimir Putin conveyed some progress has been made, while the Kremlin stressed the conflict would end when the West took action to address Moscow’s security concerns. President Zelenskyy has raised hopes with recent statements that seem to accept that Ukraine will not be a part of NATO. But even a negotiated cease-fire seems a distant prospect, let alone a lasting peace.
