On April 14, President Joe Biden’s policy review of the conflict in Afghanistan concluded with the decision to withdraw the remaining force of roughly 2,500 U.S. troops before September 11, 2021. The withdrawal from Afghanistan means that Washington would need to find another location in the region to maintain U.S. military presence. Potential replacement locations for U.S. military base include Pakistan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan. However, in a Washington Post op-ed published on June 21, Prime Minister of Pakistan Imran Khan dismisses the possibility of hosting U.S. forces and argues that the presence of U.S. military base would increase the chance of terrorist attacks in Pakistan.
After the announcement of the U.S. withdrawal, Taliban forces have made substantial gains in territories by seizing more than fifty districts, including the provincial capitals of Lashkar Gah, Kunduz, and Maimana. On June 22, UN Security Council held an Open Debate to address the escalation of conflict in Afghanistan. During the meeting, U.S. Ambassador to the UN Linda-Thomas Greenfield promised that Washington would “use our full diplomatic, economic, and assistance toolkit to support the peaceful, stable future the Afghan people want and deserve. And we will continue to support the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces in securing their country.” Three days later, President Biden hosted Afghan President Ashraf Ghani and chairman of the High Council for National Reconciliation Abdullah Abdullah at the White House and assured President Ghani of Washington’s continued financial, humanitarian and security assistance, with the latter coming in the form of MQ-9 Reaper drones stationed in the Persian Gulf.
Despite the efforts of the international community, the prospect of the peace process in Afghanistan remains stagnant, whereas the ongoing conflict could see further escalation. In a press conference at the NATO command in Kabul, coalition commander General Austin S. Miller warned that “civil war is certainly a path that can be visualized if it continues on the trajectory.” At the moment, the Taliban is perceived to have the upper hand. A recent U.S. intelligence report has concluded that the government of Afghanistan could collapse as soon as six months after U.S. military withdrawal from the country is completed.
In this Policy Alert, we will examine the rising powers’ considerations on the state of the Afghan peace process and what U.S. military withdrawal could mean for the future.
Read the full Policy Alert here.
