No matter who wins the American presidency and who fills the new Chinese Politburo, on November 6 and 8 respectively, the world can expect a more strained relationship between the United States and China in the years ahead. While individual leaders do matter and domestic debates about foreign policy persist, Sino-American relations now operate on the basis of a number of systemic factors beyond the control of Xi Jinping & Co. on the Chinese side and either Mitt Romney or Barack Obama on the American side.

Over the past three years the relationship has become more strained, fraught, and distrustful in a number of realms. The competitive elements in the relationship are growing and now becoming primary, while the cooperative ones are secondary and declining. Taken together, this condition can be described as “coopetition.” But the intergovernmental meetings meant to forge cooperation are becoming more pro forma and increasingly acrimonious. Beneath the surface of official exchanges, mutual distrust is pervasive in both governments and one now finds few bureaucratic actors on either side with a strong mission to cooperate (educational and tourist exchanges are exceptions). The two sides wrangle over trade and investment conditions, technology espionage and cyber hacking, global governance challenges like climate change and Syria, nuclear challenges like Iran and North Korea, their respective military postures in the Asia-Pacific, and other issues. As China’s global footprint has emerged onto every continent, it is increasingly bumping up against longstanding American interests—thus adding a global dimension

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By David Shambaugh, Professor of Political Science and International Affairs & Director, China Policy Program, The George Washington University