Policy Alert #183 | February 26, 2019

On February 27 and 28, 2019, United States President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un will meet in Hanoi, Vietnam for the second US-North Korea Summit. While the pair’s historic first meeting last year was hailed as a major milestone, the results were lackluster. After nearly a year of continued negotiations, concrete steps to reducing both North Korea’s nuclear arsenal and US economic sanctions on the country have yet to be seen. The Rising Powers, meanwhile, are holding their breaths for the second round.

 

SOUTH KOREA

As part of a regular meeting with aides, South Korean President Moon Jae-in said, “Should North Korea’s economy be opened, neighboring countries, international organizations and global funds will take part. In the process, we must not lose our leadership,” and, in a phone call with President Trump, reportedly offered to resume cross-border economic cooperation with North Korea alongside any US measures to reduce the sanction burden on the country.

• The liberal Hankyoreh called for the US to be proactive and flexible in negotiations, and supported President Moon’s proposal: “The White House did offer a vague incentive about exploring ways to encourage investment in the North by US partners, improve infrastructure, promote food security and more, but it needs to have the flexibility to offer a more proactive and specific plan for easing sanctions on the North. […] If the US is unable to move directly because of its political situation at home, it’s time to actively consider taking advantage of Moon’s proposal.”
• The liberal Kyunghyang Shinmun was optimistic about the upcoming summit: “We hope that the two leaders can bear fruit with candid and productive dialogue. We hope to see Chairman Kim demonstrate his commitment to denuclearization with concrete measures and President Trump to respond by boldly easing sanctions.”
• Park Jin-ho, chief of staff to Representative Baek Seung-joo of the opposition Liberty Korea Party, penned a scathing critique of the “serious lack of coordination between Seoul and Washington” in an op-ed for the liberal Korea Times. “When looking at the patterns of diplomatic negotiations with North Korea, uncertainty begets uncertainty. In both Seoul and Washington, the North’s denuclearization has been mainly dealt with and driven by political leadership concerning domestic politics,” Park asserted.
• The centrist Korea Herald summarized its hopes for the summit: “The second US-North Korea summit must produce better results than the first one.”
• The conservative Chosonilbo lamented reports that President Moon pledged to step-up cross-border economic cooperation with North Korea: “[T]here is absolutely no reason to volunteer for that task before the North has given even a hint that it will get rid of its nukes. All Moon has done is deliberately and recklessly relinquished his leverage in the denuclearization process.”

 

JAPAN

In preparations for the Hanoi Summit, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe reportedly called President Trump to urge him to raise the abduction issue with North Korean officials. Following a speech regarding border security, President Trump claimed Abe had nominated him for the Nobel Peace Prize for his efforts to negotiate with North Korea: “Prime Minister Abe of Japan gave me the most beautiful copy of a letter that he sent to the people who give out a thing called the Nobel Prize. He said, ‘I have nominated you…’ or ‘Respectfully, on behalf of Japan, I am asking them to give you the Nobel Peace Prize.’ I said, ‘Thank you.’ Many other people feel that way too. I’ll probably never get it, but that’s okay.” When questioned about the comment, Abe replied, “I’m not saying it’s untrue,” but declined to comment further, citing the standard practice of the Nobel Committee to wait fifty years before revealing who made nominations.

• The progressive Asahi Shimbun took aim at reports that Prime Minister Abe nominated President Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize: “Abe has been consistent in his quest to please Trump. It is still surprising that Abe has gone so far as to nominate Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize. Think how his action will look to the international community.”
• The liberal Mainichi Shimbun also took issue with the Nobel incident. “If President Trump wants to brag about his nomination for the Nobel Peace Prize, he should win an agreement from Chairman Kim that makes Pyongyang discard nuclear weapons and missiles, eases hostilities between the two countries and brings about stability to the region and the rest of the world,” the Mainichi said and called on the Japanese government to pressure Washington for “concrete results.”
• The centrist Japan Times criticized President’s Trump’s lack of a clear timetable for North Korean denuclearization as a “deeply flawed approach” to the negotiations: “Bold and sweeping pledges are no longer sufficient. Specific progress and benchmarks are required. Japan cannot entrust its security to empty promises.”
• The conservative Yomiuri Shimbun called for meaningful action to be achieved in Hanoi: “Tokyo and Washington have been taking great pains to maintain international pressure on Pyongyang. It cannot be overlooked that Seoul gives inter-Korean cooperation precedence over denuclearization and is impatient to provide rewards that would be exceptions to sanctions.”

 

CHINA

During a regular press conference, Ministry of Foreign Affairs Spokesperson Geng Shuang offered China’s hopes for Hanoi: “The Chinese side believes that the direct engagement and dialogue between the DPRK and US leaders are the key to resolving the Korean Peninsula nuclear issue, and we have been supporting the DPRK and the US in resolving issues through dialogue and negotiation. […] We hope the second DPRK-US summit will be held successfully with positive outcomes and inject new impetus into the realization of denuclearization and lasting peace on the Korean Peninsula. The Chinese side will continue its efforts to contribute to achieving this goal.”

 

• The state-supported China Daily offered well-wishes for the summit and noted China’s role: “It has not been easy for the Korean Peninsula peace process to have got this far, and China has been making great efforts to sustain the momentum that had been threatening to stall. Trump acknowledged this in a tweet on Sunday when he said Xi has ‘been very helpful in his support’ of the Hanoi meeting. China hopes Pyongyang and Washington will seize this opportunity to further promote peace and stability on the peninsula.”
• In an editorial, the nationalist Global Times similarly hailed China’s efforts to promote the breakthrough and was optimistic about the meeting: “China welcomes the second Kim-Trump summit. Chairman Kim’s travel through China from the north to south by train is meaningful. China has played a constructive role in Pyongyang’s new routes. Beijing is both a promoter and a stakeholder in this summit. We hope that the second summit will achieve new breakthroughs. Although the peninsula issues are complex, peace is obviously a good thing. Nothing is impossible to overcome.”
• The independent South China Morning Post featured an op-ed by Deng Yuwen, a researcher at Chinese Strategy Analysis Inc. and former deputy editor of the Central Party School’s journal Study Times, that analyzed the political stakes for Trump and Kim. Regarding China’s position, Deng argued that, “China is displeased with North Korea for pursuing a nuclear programme against Chinese advice and endangering Chinese interests. From this perspective, although China will not take the initiative and exert pressure on North Korea, it is quite happy for the US to disarm the North.”