Policy Alert #177 | November 7, 2018

As the ASEAN and G20 Summits approach, the Rising Powers have continued to focus on their bilateral ties. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe made an official visit to China on October 25th and 26th, breaking a seven year period without one. Upon his return to Tokyo, Abe hosted Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on October 28th and 29th. Meanwhile, China rolled out the red carpet for the first China International Import Expo in Shanghai, and Brazil elected its own “Trump of the Tropics.” In this RPI Policy Alert, we continue to cover developments in the Rising Powers’ diplomatic efforts.

 

CHINA

Prime Minister Abe’s visit to Beijing coincided with celebrations of the fortieth anniversary of the Sino-Japanese Treaty of Peace and Friendship, which normalized ties between the two countries during China’s “opening up” period. Chinese President Xi Jinping hinted at plans for increasing cooperation in regional development programs: “With concerted efforts by both sides, China-Japan ties are back on track and gaining positive momentum. This is worth cherishing. […] Under the new situations, China and Japan, increasingly interdependent in bilateral areas, also share more common interests and concerns on multilateral occasions.”

China’s attention shifted to the inaugural CIIE on November 5th: however, media reports emphasized that Japanese companies were the most numerous in attendance. In his keynote address, Xi promised China’s commitment to free trade: “China will never stop its steps toward pushing for a higher-quality opening up!”

• The state-directed China Daily glowingly praised the fruits of Abe’s visit: “[I]n reaffirming their commitment to peace and friendship, China and Japan have signaled to the world that they will stand together and strive to take to a new level a free and fair trading system.”
• The nationalist Global Times was optimistic about the meeting, but warned that interference from the United States remains a major hurdle to solidifying ties: “Washington’s intervention in the relationship is sometimes overt and sometimes imperceptible. One of the tasks of the US’ East Asia policy is to prevent closer Sino-Japanese ties in order to consolidate Washington’s own political and military presence in the region.”
• Cary Huang, a senior writer at the independent South China Morning Post, compared Japanese Prime Minister Abe’s meetings with President Xi and Prime Minister Modi in an op-ed: “This week’s events and the increasingly close Tokyo-New Delhi partnership are sure to stoke Chinese anxieties. The world is witnessing an emerging alliance of ‘like-minded’ free democracies, led by the US, to counter-check China’s so-called challenge to the liberal-capitalist international order.”
• Gao Hong, a research fellow at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, highlighted the potential for cooperation between the two countries in an op-ed for the China Daily: “In the field of economic collaboration, China and Japan’s pledge to expand cooperation in third party markets is quite significant. By cooperating in this way, the two countries will have a new way to strengthen ties.”
• The official media outlet for the Communist Party of China, the People’s Daily, hailed the CIIE: “China has transformed itself from a beneficiary of opening up into a performer of international responsibilities, a provider of global public goods, as well as a contributor and an advocate for economic globalization and trade liberalization.”
• TheGlobal Times fired back at “fault-finding reports” that claimed the CIIE was an effort to offset the effects of the US-China trade war: “We believe that the CIIE, if held regularly, will help China enhance the quality of its imports and balance its imports and exports. China doesn’t need to care what the outside world thinks of the expo, nor should it intentionally enhance the volume of transactions as a proof of kindness.”
• In the wake of President-Elect Jair Bolsonaro’s victory in Brazil, the Global Times assured its readers in an editorial that despite his China-bashing rhetoric during the campaign, “It’s inconceivable that the new Bolsonaro government would give up on the Chinese market,” and emphasized that the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) forum is evidence of political parity between the two countries.

 

JAPAN

In his meeting with President Xi, Prime Minister Abe expressed his optimism for the future: “It is hoped that through this visit, the two sides will usher in a new era when ‘competition is transformed into coordination.” Japanese Foreign Minister Taro Kono accompanied Abe to Beijing and met with his counterpart, Foreign Minister Wang Yi. During their meeting, the two “reaffirmed their determination to make the East China Sea a ‘Sea of Peace, Cooperation, and Friendship.’” China and Japan’s territorial dispute in the area, which flared in late 2010 and continued to worsen through 2013, is largely blamed for the tension between the two countries in recent years.

Abe’s meetings with Prime Minister Modi resulted in the signing of a new vision document and twenty-five memorandums of understanding and cooperation (detailed summaries available here), as well as an Exchange of Notes Concerning Yen Loans to India which amount to over 316.4 billion yen (approximately USD 2.79 million). Abe notably invited Modi to an informal dinner at a private venue overlooking Lake Yamanaka, providing a stark contrast to the strictly formal ceremonies with President Xi.

• The left-leaning Mainichi Shimbun was cynical about Abe’s efforts in China: “We have to wonder about how sincere the handshakes between the leaders actually were even though they appeared pretty firm.”
• The conservative Yomiuri Shimbun meanwhile called for the government not to back down against China, arguing that it was Japan’s responsibility “to frankly point out to Beijing problems about China and repeatedly urge the country to observe international rules.”
• Regarding Modi’s visit, the centrist Japan Times urged the two countries not to isolate China: “Japan and India do not need to pursue closer relations to serve as a counterweight to China. Japan should seek deeper cooperation with India as part of a diverse and broad-based diplomacy in Asia.”
• The conservative Yomiuri Shimbun, on the other hand, was supportive of Japan and India’s efforts to “balance” against China’s “self-serving actions”: “Japan, which is Asia’s second-largest economy, and India, which is its third-largest, share common values such as freedom and the rule of law. It is understandable that both Japan and India, by reconfirming their partnership, aim at maintaining the balance between itself and China.”

 

INDIA

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi met with Prime Minister Abe in Japan on October 28th and October 29th. At a press conference with Abe, Modi characterized the relationship between India and Japan as being “based on the shared commitment to democratic values, independence, and rule of law” and as “expanding continuously.” In addition to the aforementioned agreements between India and Japan, Modi and Abe agreed to pursue an acquisition and cross-servicing agreement (ACSA) for strengthening security cooperation.

• The center-right Times of India praised the outcomes of the Modi-Abe meeting: “The vision document signed by the two prime ministers reinforces the idea of a rule based world order and rejection of Chinese expansionism, visible both in the South China Sea and through ambitious moves like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).”
• Retired naval chief of staff Arun Prakash called for expectations of the Modi-Abe meeting to “remain anchored in reality” in his op-ed for the liberal Indian Express: “There is […] a sense of dissatisfaction in New Delhi that the Indo-Japanese relationship has remained below potential, and that Japan does not accord due importance to India in its security calculus.”
• Former Indian Ambassador to South Korea Vishnu Prakash highlighted one potential area for improvement in an op-ed for the liberal Hindustan Times: “Despite a CEPA [Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement], bilateral trade has dipped 6.21% to $13.61 billion in 2016-17. A correction may be difficult given India’s diffidence in upgrading trade pacts with partner nations.”
• With regards to the outcome of the Brazilian election, the Times of India offered words of caution: “In country after country we have seen that divisive and authoritarian rhetoric can help win elections but not reduce inequality or grow opportunities in society. That requires genuine reforms. It is this that the world’s eighth biggest [sic] economy deserves and Bolsonaro should provide.”
• The left-leaning Hindu was similarly cynical about the new president: “Mr. Bolsonaro brings to high office the promise to reduce regulation and tax and boost investor confidence, and also the threat to more extensively exploit Brazil’s vast natural resources, including the Amazon rainforest; he has proposed to build a highway through it. This, along with his disdain for the Paris climate change accord, could mark a disturbing departure from Brazil’s historical sensitivity to keeping its precious environmental resources intact.”

 

BRAZIL

The far-right candidate Jair Bolsonaro beat the Workers’ Party candidate Fernando Haddad in the runoff election for the Brazilian presidency on October 28th. Bolsonaro’s victory has called to question how Brazil’s foreign policy will shift given his nationalist platform, especially in terms of the country’s ties with the US, which became strained with US President Donald Trump’s tariffs under the previous administration, and China, which had close ties to the previous administration but was a frequent target of Bolsonaro’s campaign rhetoric.  

• In an interview with  BBC News Brazil, Thomas Shannon, former US Ambassador to Brazil, provided optimistic insight to how Brazil’s bilateral ties with the US could be improved under Bolsonaro’s presidency. On trade, Bolsonaro advocates for a greater opening of the Brazilian market to US investment.
• Steve Bannon, Trump’s former chief strategist, also served as a political strategist for Bolsonaro and declared to the Folha de Sao Paulo newspaper that the “enlightened capitalism,” “economic nationalism,” and “far-right populism” to be promoted by Bolsonaro’s government plan will be a complement to the United States. Bannon argued that Brazil can serve as a nationalist, populist bastion in the region in contrast to the challenges faced by neighbors Venezuela and Argentina.
• G1’s online portal reported that Bolsonaro has confirmed that he will honor a controversial campaign promise to move the Brazilian Embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem.
• In an editorial, political scientist Matias Spektor provided analysis on the potential disruptions to the Brazil-China relationship. Bolsonaro vowed a major shake-up in Brazil’s bilateral interactions with China, with the aim of slowing the Asian giant’s dominance in the country through privatization of state-owned enterprises.

 

RPI acknowledges support from the MacArthur Foundation and Carnegie Corporation of New York for its activities.